AIB releases Q4 2017 Statistics

Monday, 26 March 2018

The recently released AIB statistics for 2017 Q4 show that the Guarantee of Origin (GO) market is growing. Due to a system issue at VREG, the figures do not include Belgium, Flanders.

Issuance increased by 56.9m or 12.1%, and cancellations rose by 103.7m, or 28.3%. The large jump can be partly attributed to Spain joining the AIB in 2016. Cancellation numbers for Spain are not included in the 2016 statistics. Issuance numbers are also incomplete. The impact of the Spanish GO transactions can be seen in the bottom figure by the spike in cancellations in March 2017.

Correcting for Spain gives an indication of how the rest of the market grew. Issuance (without Spain) grew by 25.4m, i.e. 6.0% and cancellations grew by 28.9m, i.e. 7.9%.

Demand for renewable GOs continues to grow and the market keeps expanding. Compared to numbers for 2016, the amount of cancelled GOs (transaction) increased by 28.3%, while issuance only increased by 12%.

Wind and solar cancellations rose the most. Increasing by 118% and 345% respectively. 

The majority of the increases in cancellations for 2017 can be attributed to Spanish GO cancellations. Spain joined the AIB in 2016, and the 2016 statistics do not include cancellation numbers for Spain. 2017 cancellations excluding Spain amount to 395,760,085, i.e. an increase of 8%, compared to 2016. 

The full statistics can be found here [external link].