Wednesday, 08 August 2018
In order to offer a more nuanced perspective of the developments of the newly released AIB statistics, Greenfact has broken down the numbers for the last three years. All statistics are based on the period January till July.
The largest issuer within the AIB, Norway has had a continuous reduction in the number of certificates issued. Issuance during January to July in 2016 amounted to 83.6 TWh, whereas 2017 had 80.1 TWh issued, a decrease of 4.2%. During 2018, 76.7 TWh have been issued, another decrease of 4.2%. The lower issuance in Norway could possibly be due to the warm weather this year. France has seemingly also had a large decrease in issuance, but this is likely due to a lag in the publication of statistics (disclosure deadline being at the end of the year). Italy, Sweden and Switzerland have all seen increases in issuance in 2018. Most notably Sweden which issued 30 TWh until July 2018, and only 13 TWh during the same period in 2017 (Sweden’s total issuance for 2017 was 39 TWh, and total issuance for 2016 was 31 TWh).
There are increases across the board for cancelations during January to July, except for Spain, which had a decrease from 72.8 TWh in 2017 to 64.8 TWh in 2018. The largest increase was seen in Norway, where cancelations during the period rose from 28 TWh during 2017 to 38.7 TWh during 2018, an increase of 38%. This is likely a sign of higher internal demand for GOs in Norway.
The current statistics show a drop in net exports across most exporters within the AIB. The exception is Denmark which saw net exports increase by 0.2TWh during the period January to July 2018, compared to the same period last year. The net export for France during 2018 is however not necessarily reflective of the period and could be due to a lag in the publication of statistics (disclosure period end of year).
The degree to which the record warm summer has affected the issuance of GOs during the first half of 2018 is somewhat ambiguous at this point in time. Lower issuance for Norway and overall lower exports could be a reflection of this, but could also be a sign of a general downward trend. Moreover, Sweden’s issuance in 2018 actually rose compared to 2017. Since hydropower reservoirs can be run down to compensate for lower rainfall and snow melting, the effects may only be visible later this year or at the beginning of 2019. Furthermore, whether we will get a dry autumn or not, will reflect upon the magnitude of the shortage of available hydropower.
Check out our data section for the latest statistics