ICAO maintains conditional eligibility for major voluntary standards, pressuring CORSIA Phase 1 credit supply

During the recent ICAO Council session, the eligibility criteria for CORSIA Phase 1 were reaffirmed, maintaining conditional eligibility for Verra, Gold Standard, and CAR. Meanwhile, only ACR and ART remained as eligible standards.

Challenges include the prevention of double-claiming and the management of supply uncertainties, with standards given until April 15 to provide responses.

The credits from the two standards eligible under CORSIA Phase 1 – ACR and ART – constitute only 15% of the total credits in circulation. Guyana's ART project, the first to qualify for CORSIA Phase 1, represents slightly less than 2% of the market's circulating credits and covers 2.6% of the estimated total demand from airlines subject to offset requirements.

Gold Standard and Verra have projects with corresponding adjustments that could contribute to the supply if these standards were to be accepted in the next decision in November 2024.

Market prices are expected to increase due to anticipated higher demand, as indicated by the rising settlement prices of ICE CP1 futures.