AIB 2021 Statistics Analysis - Focus on the Supply side
On July 22nd, the AIB published its Annual Report for the year 2021, alongside the (almost) final 2021 statistics for EECS Production and Transaction.
Although the figures (especially the Issuances) might slightly evolve in the weeks to come (at the margin), we have decided to provide you with a summary of the 2021 statistics and what is our take on this, in the light of the first seven months of 2022 and of the markets’ movements.
This analysis will be divided into three parts: we first focus on the Supply side (Issuances), then the Demand side (Cancellations) and we end with the Interactions between Supply and Demand, both within a country or between two countries (imports and exports).
This is the first part of the Analysis, the Supply side.
We first discuss the ‘global’ issuances levels, then adopt a month-by-month approach. Finally, we focus on each technology trend.
Climate change enthusiast and former OECD Economics Consultant on Renewables within the IPAC. Holds a Master in Economics and Public Policy from Sciences Po Paris.
I. Focus on 2021 statistics
Production issuances have increased in 2021, according to AIB statistics. In 2021, more than 746 TWh of Renewable GOs were issued, compared to 679 in 2020 and 600 in 2019. Therefore, the amount of GOs issued increased by 9.87% in 2021 compared to the previous year, and by almost 25% (24.35% exactly) when compared to 2019.
This twists the neck to the idea we’re read here and there that “GOs are dead”, at least on the supply side. Two factors might, in our view, contribute to this continuing rise in issuances recorded every year:
- Issuers (supply) seem to be aware of the stable interest of GOs cancellers (demand), especially if following closely the latest regulations set both at the EU and national levels. There are many incentives (or obligations, sometimes) for purchasing GOs;
- As we’ve underlined in an article in May 2022, renewable installed capacities are growing and growing more every year, inside the AIB.
Let’s now zoom in on the month-by-month issuances, at a global level still.
Unsurprisingly, 2021 issuances followed more or less the same pattern: high issuances in the first three months of the year, drop in April (after the end of the previous compliance period), pick up in May and then decrease to reach their lowest point in September. Finally, a low issuing level period (though increasing) until the last month of the year.
When we look more closely at the monthly issuances for the years 2019 to 2021, i.e. the percentage of issuances for a given month (as a percentage of the year’s issuances), we remark that the trend is similar across years. Nonetheless, 2021 has seen an increase in issuances for the first three months of the year: in 2019, they represented 25.46% of the year issuances, 25.84% in 2020 but 27.16% in 2021, illustrating that issuers are more and more considering the disclosure deadlines in March while planning their issuances.
In 2021, as in 2019 and 2020, one of the most ‘performing’ months is December, with 9.10% of the year’s issuances. But this percentage is decreasing, from 9.61% in 2019 and 9.59% in 2020.
Now that we have seen the year-to-year and month-by-month evolutions, we can look for more granularity and focus on the issuances per technology, with a special spotlight on Norway Hydro issuances.
II. Issuances per technology
For this section, we have divided renewable technologies into five main blocks: biomass, hydro, solar, wind, and other.
The first fact to note: not only the issuances at the global level increased in 2021, but every recorded technology did increase its issuances (apart from ‘other’).
The biggest increase in value (TWh) is for Hydro, going from 432.8 TWh in 2020 to 448 TWh in 2021 (+15.2 TWh or 3.5%). Hydro is still, by far, the most issued technology, with a 61.1% share. But this share has been decreasing at a fast pace: it was 67.1% in 2019 and 65% in 2020. This is due to a major increase in the amount of Wind GOs issuances, which increased by over 50% in the 2019-2021 period (from 115.9 to 174.8 TWh).
Though still low, Solar GO issuances have doubled between 2019 and 2021.
Focus on the Norwegian Hydro
Norwegian Hydro is often referred to as the “benchmark” product when mentioning GOs. There is a clear reason for it.
In 2021, almost 142 TWh of Norwegian Hydro were issued. This represents 92.4% of Norway GOs issuances and 31.7% of all hydro issuances across the AIB. Nonetheless, its percentage of Norway issuances has been decreasing, with 95.8% in 2019 and 93.6% in 2020. It can be explained by a doubling of onshore wind issuances (from 5.3 to 10.6 TWh) from 2019 to 2021.
As for all renewable issuances across all AIB countries, Norway’s hydro issuances still accounted for 19% of it in 2021, versus 20.6% both in 2019 and 2021.
This was the first short report on the latest AIB statistics for the year 2021, focused only on issuances. We will soon release a second one that focuses on the demand side (cancellations), and then a third and last one on countries’ interactions (imports and exports).
For any questions on this report or on Greenfact’s platform and data services, do not hesitate to contact me at email@example.com
Source: AIB Statistics