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AIB first half 2022 statistics analysis

Important Note: Statistics reported here are solely for Renewable Energy GOs. Statistics reported here are sourced from the AIB and it is important to note that moving forward these figures and their accuracy may change due to a lag in reported figures from certain countries to the AIB.

The AIB recently published its latest statistics for the first seven months of 2022, both in terms of Supply (issuances) and Demand (cancellations). We will focus, for practical reasons, on the first half (H1) of the year only (thus excluding July). Although the figures might slightly evolve in the weeks/months to come, we have decided to provide you with a summary of the six first months of 2022 statistics and what is our take on this, in light of the markets’ movements.

In the latest AIB statistics for 2022 H1, GO supply (transaction issuances) is at 391.84 TWh while demand (cancellations) stood at 550.33 TWh. Compared to 2021 figures, the supply of GOs in the market in S1 2022 increased by only 0.72% while the demand increased slightly over 11%.

Photo of Léo Robert

Written by

Léo Robert

Green Power Analyst

Climate change enthusiast and former OECD Economics Consultant on Renewables within the IPAC. Holds a Master in Economics and Public Policy from Sciences Po Paris.

Monthly RES-GO transaction issuances in the AIB

Transaction issuances are usually higher in Q1 (January-March) as some market players try to issue their GOs in the new year to get increased GO validity in some countries as well as due to disclosure deadlines for many AIB member countries being in March. For almost all months in this first quarter, the monthly GO supply in 2022 was higher when compared to 2021 and 2020.

In total per quarter, 2022 saw more issuances than 2021, 2020, and 2019: the rising trend goes on. Same for Q2. Nonetheless, these increases are moderate: +5.96 TWh in Q1 and +2.11 TWh in Q2.

During the past three years, we have seen, on a quarterly basis, rising issuances; this is also true for 2022 Q1 and Q2, but will it be for the two last quarters?

Lets us move on a breakdown not per quarter, but per technology.

While hydropower continues to be the most frequently issued technology GO, we can see that supply for Wind (until 2022) and Solar GOs are fast on the rise. The supply of GOs from Wind technology showed the most growth rising to 23% of issuance volumes in 2021 up from a 21% share in 2020, and continued to increase in this first semester of 2022, from a 23.7% share in H1 2021 to 29.7% in H1 2022.

The following graph illustrates this rise in Wind Issuances, in comparison to Hydro Issuances that clearly decreased in H1 2022.

Monthly RES-GO transaction cancellations in the AIB

The highest demand peak for GOs was, as usual, in March and this is mostly attributed to disclosure deadlines falling in the same month. GO Cancellations were up by 11.2% in H1 2022 when compared to H1 2021. It is important to note that most of this increase in cancellations is seen in the first three months of 2022 (March notably, with +21 TWh cancelled) which is before the disclosure deadline for 2021.

As we can see from the above graph, cancellation in the first two quarters of 2022 is actually up on the previous year by 13 and 8% for Q1 and Q2 respectively.

If we look at cancellations per technology for H1 2022, we can observe that demand is increasing for all four major technologies (Biomass, Hydro, Solar and Wind) when compared with 2021 levels.

Source: AIB Statistics

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