According to data from our data partners, this week saw an increase in market activity when compared to the week prior. Recorded transactions and volumes traded increased by 39% and over 100%, respectively, compared to the week prior.

This week's focus seems to be on current year and short-term forward year contracts. Trading activity was slightly more focused on 2023 production products that had a 34% share of total volumes up by 9%. This was followed by 2022 production volumes that accounted for a 22% share down from a 55% share last week. 2024 production vintages followed with a 19% share increasing by 9% when compared to Week 20. Trades even further along the curve were witnessed with 2025 and 2026 vintages having a 9% and 6% share respectively with the former increasing by 4% indicating a continued increase in interest in hedging forward year electricity consumption

Meanwhile, the share of 2021 production contracts increased slightly to 9% up from a 5% share last week possibly attributed to purchases from market players in countries with later disclosure deadlines.

Week 21 2022: price dashboard

Guarantees of Origin price remained fairly stable this week. The highest price increase was witnessed in the Nordic Hydro 2021 production vintage that closed the week at an average price of 95.9 Eurocents/MWh, up by almost 2 Eurocents when compared to the previous week. The Nordic Hydro 2024 production vintage followed with an alømost 1 Eurocent increase, closing the week at an average price of 213.2 Eurocents/MWh. Meanwhile, prices for the Nordic Hydro 2022, 2023 and 2025 vintages remained stable compared to the week prior closing the week at 190, 203.1 and 218.3 Eurocents/MWh respectively. Additionally, the 2026 Nordic Hydro vintage closed the week at around 225 Eurocents/MWh.

Nordic (Norway, Sweden & Finland) hydrological reservoir levels given in the second slide show a notable increase of 2.8% in reservoir levels in Week 20 of 2022.

Week 21 2022: Nordic hydro

Forecasted Nordic Hydro production and inflow levels (Weeks 22-23)

A higher than normal inflow is expected in the Nordic region in the coming Weeks 22 & 23, with levels forecasted to be 22% above the norm in Week 22 and 10% above in Week 23. Nordic hydro production is expected to slightly increase in the coming two weeks, with production next week forecasted to be 2% above normal production levels in Week 22. Precipitation levels are also expected to increase in the coming week with rainfall levels expected to be 2% above the norm and further contributing to the recovery of reservoir levels.

In the EU market prices also remained fairly stable with the 2022 production vintage closing at around 189.2 Eurocents/MWh down by almost 1 Eurocent compared to the week prior while the 2023 vintage closed at 204 Eurocents/MWh. Both vintages were trading close in parity to their Nordic Hydro counterparts. Furthermore, the EU Solar 2023 and 2024 vintages closed the week at 208 Eurocents/MWh.

Hydro production across the Iberian Peninsula (IB) decreased this week by 2% when compared to the week prior, while in Central Western Europe (CWE), hydro production remained stable possibly due to high precipitation in the past weeks, potentially partially contributing to the downward pressure on GO prices witnessed this week.

Iberian Peninsula (Spain & Portugal) hydrological reservoir levels given in the first slide show slightly higher reservoir levels in Week 20 with reservoir levels increasing by 0.2% when compared to the week prior. In Central Western Europe hydrological reservoir levels for Week 20 have yet to be released at the time of publishing this overview.

Week 21 2022: EU Hydro

Forecasted EU Hydro production and inflow levels (Weeks 22-23)

In the Iberian Peninsula, water reservoir levels are projected to decrease further, reaching 43.9% in Week 22, due to an expected decrease in inflows. By Week 23, inflows are projected to be 53% below the norm, and hydro production 45% below the norm as well.

Water reservoir levels in Central Western Europe are projected to increase further in Weeks 22 & 23 reaching 47.2% in Week 22. Hydropower production is forecasted to remain steady, due to constant high inflows and precipitation levels.

This week saw a slight price decrease in Spanish domestic 2022 GoO prices with GOs for unspecified renewable energy trading at an average price of 180 Eurocents/MWh having decreased by 10 Eurocents/MWh when compared to weeks prior.

GoO prices for Spanish domestic 2022 Hydro production also decreased trading at 175 Eurocents down by almost 2 Eurocents when compared to Week 20. Furthermore, Spanish domestic Biomass and Wind 2022 vintages closed the week at around 178.5 and 181 Eurocents/MWh respectively.

The spreads between domestic Spanish GO prices and the benchmark Nordic Hydro prices slightly widened this week with spreads for 2022 production at 10 Eurocents up from a 4 Eurocent spread witnessed in Week 20.

Furthermore, predictions on domestic 2022 prices for the coming week are predicted to remain between the 180-190 Eurocents/MWh range.

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UK markets saw a significant bump in price, with Crop and Waste RGGOs increasing by almost 6 and 10% respectively. The mid-range EU products (Certified Crop, Uncertified Waste) saw increases of between 2-4%. EU Waste maintains a premium slightly over UK Waste RGGOs, although this has shrunk to just over 2 EUR/MWh.

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In the carbon markets, the EUA Dec-22 contract price remained stable today and was last seen trading at €84.52/t down by €0.24/t from the previous close.

After kicking off the week at its lowest witnessed price since April at €78.15/t, the carbon price began to slowly rise. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the contract traded mostly sideways slightly above €81/t. On Thursday however, price gains of €3.36/t were witnessed with the carbon price trading at €84.76/t which has been mainly attributed to low market liquidity.

There has been a steady rise in forward year trading and balancing in the past two weeks and we continue to expect this in the coming weeks. As reservoir levels continue to recover in the Nordics and the rest of Europe we can expect Hydro production to pick up and European wind production also on the rise in some regions this may have a downward effect on prices. This will largely depend on when producers sell their available volumes to the market.

Additionally, some market players report that buyer activity in some markets has remained fairly low post-March disclosure deadlines as some market players have been more focused on the physical commodities markets. However, should market activity continue to pick up next week, it will likely continue to support price levels.

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Prices for Nordic Hydro vintages remained fairly stable this week with the highest price increase witnessed in the 2021 vintage.

Recorded transactions and volumes increased by 39% and over 100% with 2023 production GOs having the largest share of recorded transactions this week as participants continued hedging forward year consumption.

The Nordic hydropower reservoir levels continue to slowly recover having increased by 2.8% in Week 20 of 2022.

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GO Week 21 Overview - GoO prices remain fairly stable as reservoir levels slowly recover

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