This week's focus seems to be on the current year and short-term forward year contracts, as in Week 26. Trading activity was focused on 2022 production products that had a 54% share of trades. This was followed by 2023 and 2024 production volumes which both had a 23% share. As we wrote two weeks ago, the activity picked up in Week 26, mostly due to the very low activity level last week because of the E-World event in Essen, Germany. Nonetheless, this week saw a decrease in the number of transactions recorded.

Week 27 2022: price dashboard

Guarantees of Origin prices increased this week. The highest price increase in % was witnessed in the Nordic Hydro 2022 production vintage that closed the week at an average price of 210 Eurocents/MWh, up by more than 11 Eurocents when compared to the previous week (+5.88%). The EU Renewable Unspecified for both 2023 and 2024 production years followed with both 13 Eurocents price increase (5.65 and 5.53% increases, respectively).

Nordic (Norway, Sweden & Finland) hydrological reservoir levels given in the second slide show a notable increase of 5.9% in reservoir levels in Week 26 of 2022.

Week 27 2022: Nordic hydro

A lower than normal and decreasing inflow is expected in the Nordic region in the coming Weeks 28 & 29, with levels forecasted to be 13% below the norm in Week 28 and 4% below in Week 29. Precipitation levels are expected to decrease in Week 28, with rainfall levels expected to be 7% below the norm, but it is likely to pick up in Week 29. Nordic hydro production is expected to remain stable in the coming two weeks, with production forecasted to be 5% below normal production levels in Week 28, and 6%below normal levels in Week 29.


Iberian Peninsula (Spain & Portugal) hydrological reservoir levels given in the first slide show slightly lower reservoir levels in Week 26 with reservoir levels decreasing by 0.8% when compared to the week prior. In Central Western Europe, Week 26 reservoir level increased by 3.2%: despite this good increase, Week 26 level is a bit behind median levels, by 0.2% points.

Week 27 2022: EU Hydro

Forecasted EU Hydro production and inflow levels (Weeks 28-29)

Hydro production across the Iberian Peninsula (IB) increased in week 26 by 6% points (as % of normal production) when compared to the week prior, while in Central Western Europe (CWE), hydro production slightly decreased by 0.1% points, possibly due to low precipitation in Week 24.


In the Iberian Peninsula, water reservoir levels are projected to decrease further, reaching 38.1% in Week 29 (16.6% points down compared to median levels), due to an expected decrease in low precipitation levels, which will probably be close to 0. By Week 29, inflows are projected to be 45% points below the norm, and hydro production is 23% below the norm as well.

Water reservoir levels in Central Western Europe are projected to increase further (until Week 28), reaching 66% in Week 28. Then, it is projected to decrease slightly, to reach 63% by Week 30. Hydropower production is forecasted to decrease by Week 29 (around 22% below the norm), due to decreasing inflows and almost no precipitation levels.

The biomethane certificate market in Europe was flat with no change in quoted prices, while the UK RGGOs increased in price by more than 1%, both Waste and Crop. The Waste price has completely recovered from the slight dip around mid-June to sit at its highest value ever (21.25 GBP/MWh).


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The EUA Dec-22 contract posted a sharp correction on Friday (1 July) as the day’s auction cleared at a €0.74/t discount compared to the secondary market price, causing a larger sell-off. The benchmark EUA contract closed the session at €85.58/t that day, shedding 5.1% from the previous close. The bearishness prevailed at the start of this week with carbon prices largely ignoring movements in the wider energy complex during Monday and Tuesday, ending Tuesday’s session at 83.19/t in a very illiquid market environment. Summer holiday season has further reduced trading volume. Wednesday’s and Thursday’s session saw moderate gains with carbon prices reacting to bullish sentiment from the wider energy complex. The EUA Dec-22 contract ended Thursday’s session at 84.92/t, 5.8% lower week-on-week.

We remain neutral for EUAs as trilogue negotiations on the ETS review file will start later this month while the high energy price environment acts as a demand factor for EUAs related to higher coal and lignite burn. We expect EUA Dec-22 prices to trade in the €77.38/t to €86.98/t zone for most of next week with traders watching Russian gas supplies closely and assessing the impact of further supply cuts on the wider economic situation. We expect that the bearish impact of a full supply cut of Nordstream1 volumes would outweigh any bullish impact of ramping-up extra hard coal and lignite assets.

Gas, as well as power prices, were on a bull-run last week, on increasing risk for further gas supply cuts. Further, low river levels due to hot weather conditions pose an upside risk to coal prices with Europe’s embargo on Russian coal beginning on 10 August. The Dutch TTF gas front-month contract jumped to €144.514/MWh at the end of Thursday’s session (07 July), posting a 26.8% increase week-on-week. The German power Cal’23 followed sharply higher, ending Thursday’s session at €396.38/MWh, 25.1% higher week-on-week.

The downward trend observed during the past weeks has been a bit attenuated. Nonetheless, volumes are on the market but buyers are more reluctant, as per the risky environment that hasn't been improved (geopolitically and financially, for the most part). Markets players persist and sign in bearish sentiment. Furthermore, as for the GOs market, market activity is low due to the summer period, which does not help the prices to catch up, in addition to the fundamental and medium to long-term concerns we have just underlined.

Nonetheless, the Nature-based offset (December 22) has found a bit of air during the end of the week, reaching $9 this morning after more than ten days below this mark. At the time of writing, it trades at $9 still, up by more than $0.4 compared to last week (+4.7% week to week). This rise is a short burst of light, and the spread to December 23 is still above $2.

As for the C-GEO index December 22, it lost a lot of ground this week, closing at $2.30, down by $0.21 or -8.4%. The supposed $2.50 support level did not hold. The C-GEO index hit its lowest point since its launch. As a reminder, the index was twice the current price by the end of April.

According to our data partners and sources, the low activity level is not surprising, as most market players are out. Still, this low trading activity reflects the low volumes available on the market at the moment, translating into increasing prices.

As stated in the title of this Overview, the 2023 Nordic Hydro vintage is close to breaking a new record, closing the week at 237.25 Eurocents/MWh, on the rise for the sixth week in a row. Our projection, as per our conversations with market players and in regard to the fundamental aspects of the market, is that the 246 Eurocents/MWh record is likely to be beaten in the weeks to come. In fact, despite the apparent focus on 2022 vintage for Nordic Hydro, we note a steadily increasing interest for the 2023 vintage as the year moves on.


For the UK market, the latest events (the so-called 'Boxit') added more confusion and uncertainty for what's coming next, both for the negotiations with the EU and specifically in our case the future status of EU GOs in the UK. We maintain our forecast that both REGO and EU GOs prices are to increase substantially due to the expected change in regulation. Nonetheless, the new UK Government will be the only entity able to decide otherwise. To be followed!

Should you have any remark, question, or inquiry regarding this Weekly Overview, feel free to get in touch at 

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Prices for Nordic Hydro for current and forward vintages increased this week with the highest price increase in the 2022 vintage.

Recorded transactions and volumes decreased by 57% and 80% with 2022 production GOs having the largest share of recorded transactions this week.

The Nordic hydropower reservoir levels continue to recover, having increased by 5.9% in Week 26 of 2022.

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GO Week 27 Overview - 6 weeks of rise for Nordic Hydro 2023!

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