W45 2022: price dashboard

W45 2022: Nordic hydro price

All Nordic Hydro prices increased this week. The highest price increase (in value and percentage) was witnessed with the Nordic Hydro 2022 production vintage (as last week) that closed the week at an average price of 715 Eurocents/MWh, up by 55 Eurocents when compared to the previous week (+8.28%). This is the highest weekly closing price we have ever witnessed for this vintage of Nordic Hydro, again.

The Nordic Hydro 2023 production vintage followed and closed this week at a high price too (again!..), at 667 Eurocents/MWh (+7.86%), another record for this vintage as well.

The 2024 vintage also breached another record by closing this week at 461 Eurocents/MWh (+4.88%).

Further along the curve, 2025 vintage of Nordic Hydro gained 24 Eurocents and closed at 369 Eurocents/MWh.

This upward trend is also witnessed with Nordic Wind, closing at almost 7 Euros/MWh (6.95 exactly).

On another note, we saw Nuclear GO prices raise by a lot (for the Nordic region), them being around 36 Eurocents/MWh at the moment for the 2022 production (around 15 for 2023).

W45 2022: EU hydro price

This week saw a sharp increase for the EU Hydro 2022 vintage, up by 81 Eurocents/MWh (+12.37%). Undoubtedly, a new record for EU Hydro.

We also witnessed a very high 701 Eurocents/MWh weekly closing price for EU Unspecified 2022, up by 51 Eurocents compared to last week (+7.81%). This is a new record for this product and vintage!

In Week 45, saw continued growth in prices in the Spanish domestic market although GOs for unspecified renewables were traded at an average discount of 45 Eurocent/MWh compared to their EU GO counterparts.

In line with the EU OTC GOs market, the undersupply has placed pressure on 2022 and 2023 GO prices. On the supply side, the lack of subsidized plant production in Spain has underscored the shortage of market volume. Meanwhile, given the significant increases in the issuance and import of GO this year in comparison with the last year, the undersupply of GO has been further enlarged as some producers are holding back of volumes with expectation of higher prices.

On the demand side, under the energy crisis, buyers in the Spanish domestic market tend to consider price as the overriding factor in their purchases instead of holding a technology specific preference. Considering the weak wind conditions, along with the underperformance of hydro production, market activities have been shifted to Renewables unspecified and Solar.

Spot Spanish domestic GOs (2022) for RE unspecified were traded between 6.45 to 6.75 EUR/MWh, with an average premium of around 1.7EUR compared to 2023 production GOs, which were traded at around 5 EUR/MWh. Notably, as the market nears the next electricity disclosure period in March 2023, market participants have already begun balancing their 2023 portfolios, increasing demand for the product. Considering the forward GOs, the phase out of 2021 production and approaching electricity disclosure deadline (Q1 2023) has brought in more market activities for 2024 forward GOs trades, which has increased more than 30% compared to two weeks ago. However, the backwardation has persisted, where 2024 forward GOs were traded at 4 EUR/MWh, at a significant discount of 2.6 EUR/MWh in comparison to GOs of 2022production, mainly due to the market expectation for growing supply suggested by the expansion of renewable installations proposed in the country’s national energy policy.

For more information related to the Spanish domestic GO market please contact 

W45 2022: Nordic reservoir levels

Nordic hydrological reservoir levels for Week 44 show increasing reservoir levels, up by 1.2% at 77.7%. 2022 reservoir levels are thus still above 2021 levels, and the gap increased to a 3.2 percentage points difference (versus 3.1 last week). Norway Hydro levels recorded an increase of 2% when compared to levels witnessed in Week 43, and are still above 2021 reservoir levels, by 6.4 % points (versus 5.2 last week).

A decrease in inflows (when compared to Week 43 expectations) is expected in the Nordic region in Weeks 45 and 46 (and 47), with inflow levels forecasted to be above normal levels, 101% above in Week 45, and 20% above in Week 46 but only 15% above in Week 47.

Nordic hydro production is expected to increase (in value and as % of normal levels), reaching around 4 400 GWh in Week 47, compared to around 3 900 GWh in Week 44. Nordic hydro production is forecasted to be at normal levels by Week 46, then slightly decreasing.

W45 2022: EU reservoir levels

Iberian Peninsula (Spain & Portugal) hydrological reservoir levels for Week 44 increased by 1.2% when compared to last week. In Central Western Europe, Week 44 reservoir levels didn't increase or decrease.

Hydro production across the Iberian Peninsula (IB) is still far below normal levels, as last week. It decreased this week to reach 58% of normal levels (63% last week). A similar trend was witnessed in Central Western Europe where hydro production decreased to reach 81% of normal levels, compared to 92% last week.

In the Iberian Peninsula, precipitations are expected to increase in Week 46, to reach 166% of normal levels (versus 119% this week). Inflows are forecasted to largely increase, around 83% of normal levels by Week 46 (compared to 67% last week). Same for hydro production, and it is forecasted to gradually increase, being 17% below normal levels (39% above in Week 38 and 28% below in Week 39, as a reminder) in Week 46, and 7% below in Week 47.

As for Central Western Europe, in Weeks 46 and 47 hydro production levels are expected to increase in value and as % of normal levels: furthermore, large increases in precipitation levels are expected in Week 46 with levels reaching 110% of normal levels, after a very good Week 44 (105% of normal levels). During Week 46 and further on, inflows are expected to increase in value and % (forecasted at 94% of normal levels in Week 46).

No major changes to EU Certificate prices, with only the premium Waste certified product inching up slightly to 47.75 EUR/MWh. In UK, Crop RGGOs found a new mid-point at 13.43 GBP/MWh, with the spread dropping below 40 p, suggesting there are some deals to be made. Waste RGGOs are still priced above their EU (uncertified) counterpart - we expect liquidity to remain low until this changes.


Following some modest gains on Monday (7 Nov), the EUA Dec-22 contract corrected significantly over Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s sessions amid weak auction results and very low liquidity. While market participants waited for the Parliament’s vote on RePowerEU scheduled for 10 November, the benchmark carbon contract fell from a settlement price of €77.49/t on Monday (7 Nov) to €72.26/t on Wednesday (9Nov). Thursday’s session (10 Nov) was largely rangebound amid the European Parliament voting in favour of frontloading auctioned allowances to finance REpowerEU. Lawmakers agreed to raise 20 billion euro by auctioning more allowances before the end of 2025 from supply that was planned to come to market only between 2027 and 2030. The market largely ignored the vote and awaits further clarity from the trilogue process starting on 16 November with a second trilogue scheduled for the week thereafter. Meanwhile, positive US inflation data also published on Thursday were largely shrugged off by the market. The US consumer price index showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, against a consensus estimate of 0.6%, sending equity markets higher. The EUA Dec-22 contract closed the session at €73.05/t, some 4.8% lower week-on-week.

The third EU ETS trilogue meeting on the EU ETS did not result in any news while the CBAM trilogue session that took place earlier during the week (8 Nov) reportedly resulted in some progress with much of the focus shifting towards the 12 December where lawmakers hope to conclude on both files.

The €73.68/t to €73.9/t range is crucial to watch with today’s (11 Nov) session. In case the EUA Dec-22 contract closes above that range, the market has room until 82.58/. Should the EUA Dec-22 contract close below the range, the benchmark contract could test support around the €66/t level. The 50-day moving average seems to provide some guidance at the moment and overall, we expect the low volatility to prevail.

The Dutch TTF gas front-month contract continued to correct lower week-on-week, closing Thursday’s session (10 Nov) at €113.452/MWh, down 9.6% week-on-week, helped by lower demand as a result of milder temperatures and reduced industrial sector activity. Temperature levels remain above seasonal average for the time being. European storages are at 95.35% according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data, marginally up from last week and much higher compared to 74.69% one year ago. The German power Cal’23 contract corrected further following gas prices lower, with the frontyear contract closing at €320.91/MWh on Thursday (10 Nov), minus 14.4% week-on-week.

Another week of rise for GO prices had just ended. It's not the first (far from it) of the year, and probably not the last one. Gains for all technologies are more than substantial, notably for hydro-related products (+81 Eurocents for EU Hydro 2022 and +55 for Nordic Hydro 2022), in line with the previous weeks. Over the past two months, Nordic Hydro 2022 price almost doubled and was multiplied by more than four since the start of the year.

The underlying reasons for this unprecedented increase across all GOs' history seem to be applicable, in the eyes of market players, for forward years as well: the 2023 Nordic Hydro vintage almost tripled since we started recording trades.

The question that remains on everyone's burning lips is 

 Impossible to tell, but so far nothing indicates that it is about to stop. Nonetheless, we already witnessed even higher prices, around 7.7 Euros/MWh. The weeks to come will bring some clarifications, but the prices are almost at 8 Euros/MWh.

Should you have any remark, question, or inquiry regarding this Weekly Overview or Guarantees of Origin & Carbon prices in general, feel free to get in touch at 

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Prices for all recorded vintages and technologies increased this week with the highest price increase (in value and percentage) witnessed for the EU Hydro 2022.

Recorded transactions and volumes moved by 34% and 13% respectively. 2022 production GOs have the largest share (53%) of recorded transactions this week.

The Nordic hydropower reservoir levels slightly recovered this week, up by 1.2%.

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GO Week 45 Overview - EU Hydro 2022 close to 7.5 Euros/MWh!

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