W47 2022: price dashboard

According to the statistics from our data partners, this week saw persistent price increases, but with fewer transactions and volumes.

This week's trading activity focused on 2022 and 2023 production contracts, with 45% (+11% points) and 42% (- 1% point) share of transactions respectively. Compared to the previous week, the vintage preference shifted to 2022 production, with an increase of 11% points (as % of the total amount of transactions recorded); while the trading share of 2023 decreased by 1% point. Trades even further along the curve were witnessed with 11% of 2024 production contracts in the total trading volume, a 3% increase, while there were no trades recorded for the 2025 and 2026 production years. The share of 2021 production contracts increased by 1% to 3% of the total weekly trading volume in comparison to the previous week.

W47 2022: NH price

This week, as usual, all Nordic-related products increased, by quite good amounts. The average price for 2022 Nordic Hydro GOs closed the week with a continuous dominant price among all vintages, of around 908 Eurocents/MWh, +126 Eurocents/MWh when compared to last week (+16%).

The prices for the 2023 Nordic Hydro forward GOs saw a 108 Eurocents increase, closing the week at 872 Eurocents/MWh, with a weekly growth rate of up to 14%.

Surprisingly, the highest increase in % is for the 2021 Nordic Hydro vintages, which increased by 105 Eurocents to 688 Eurocents/MWh, despite that it should have phased out of the market at the end of October. This demand may be driven by using Q4 2021 GOs production for electricity disclosure of the year 2022 in some European countries, as 2021 GO vintages are significantly cheaper than 2022 GO production, and the 21/22 spread is increasing (+2.2 Euros versus 2 Euros last week).

These prices account for today's activity (Friday 25 November), when we saw trades up to 941 Eurocents/MWh for the 2022 vintage and 903 Eurocents/MWh for the 2023 vintage.

W47 2022: Nordic hydrobalance and reservoir levels

This week, Nordic reservoir levels lost a bit of ground, down by 1.5% when compared to last week. They are thus slightly below median levels, after a few weeks of good precipitation levels (weeks 44 and 45) and a lower-than-normal week (46), with only 16% of normal levels in terms of precipitation. This is reflected in the hydro production for the coming weeks, which are just below previously forecasted levels, though still above normal (around +8%).

W47 2022: EU Hydro price

It is among EU products that we witnessed the highest week-on-week increase (in %), for the EU 2023 Solar: it increased by 26%, +177 Eurocents/MWh to close at 865 Eurocents/MWh this week. EU Hydro 2023 was not far behind with a 20% increase (+144 Eurocents), tightening the 22/23 spread for this product (from -40 to -18 Eurocents this week). In fact, its 2022 counterpart also increased (closing at 885 Eurocents/MWh, + 122 Eurocents/MWh or +16%), but less.

As for other EU products, the Renewable Unspecified & Other remains on its constant raise, with gains of 108 Eurocents/MWh (+15%) for its 2022 vintage and of 112 Eurocents/MWh (+15%) for 2023.

W47 2022: EU reservoir levels

This week, reservoir levels increased by 0.7% in the Iberian Peninsula and decreased by 0.6% in Central Western Europe. It reflects well the current below normal condition of both regions in terms of Hydro production. If current levels are no good, the forecasts we consulted do not predict any change in the trend, at least in the next two weeks, despite the Iberian Peninsula slightly recovering its reservoir levels.

Nothing seems to stop GO prices from surging every day, every week. But what happened this week is a more than 1 EUR increase on average: at this rhythm, we will be far past the 10 EUR mark by the Christmas vacation. This trend is not only witnessable within OTC markets, but also amongst GO-supported auctions, whether in France or Slovakia and others.

Hydro production and inflow will have to be watched closely.

EU Certificate prices remain flat, with very little interest for Crop product. Conversely, demand for Certified Waste is high, although lack of supply remains an issue. The UK markets saw slight gains, with the Waste RGGO mid-point rising above 28 GBP/MWh, and trading slightly above its EU Uncertified Waste counterpart.


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Prices for Nordic Hydro vintages maintained upward trends, with the highest weekly growth rate in the 2023 production, the same as last week.

Recorded transactions concentrated in GOs for 2022 and 2023 production (though overall transactions decreased by 46%), while traded volumes decreased by 56%.

Considering the general recovering hydro reservoir levels and expected reduction in electricity consumption, the undersupply for 2022 Hydro GOs may be improved towards the end of the year.

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GO Week 47 Overview - Is Nordic Hydro going to reach 10 Euros/MWh?

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