2021, 2022 and 2023 vintages of Nordic Hydro had a busy and bullish month, increasing every day. The changes for the month have been the following: +454 Eurocents/MWh for the 2021 vintage (+127%), +365 Eurocents/MWh for the 2022 vintage (+59%) and +261 Eurocents/MWh for the 2023 vintage (+41%).

As for the 2024 vintage ends the month at +139 Eurocents/MWh, equal to (+32%).

This translates into the highest VWAP monthly price for all four years of production since the beginning of the year. Moreover, even the month-to-month comparison reveals sharp increases, the largest for 2022 and 2023 vintages, the second highest being between August and September.


Between January and February 2022, prices increased by 41% for the 2021 vintage, 22% for 2022 and 13% for 2023. From August to September, it increased by 41% for 2021, 36% for 2022 and 16% for 2023.

As a result, the spread between the different production years moved a lot, increasing to around 232 Eurocents/MWh for 2021/2022, due to the higher increase this month for the 2022 vintage. The 22/23 spread remained around -43.33 Eurocents.

The 2021 vintage ended November with a price more than seven times the one it closed at in January. Moreover, 4.6 times for the 2022 vintage, and 3.7 times for the 2023 vintage.

Nordic Hydro price developments

November is now the month with the most volumes traded. Nordic Hydro 2023 and 2024 each represented 28% of the volumes traded. Except for October, this is quite a shift compared to the previous months, where we noticed at least a few (if not more) volumes traded for vintages further along the curve.

Nordic Hydro volumes traded per month per CY

AIB statistics are available until the month of September 2022 (included) and are subject to adjustments.

First, issuances were quite low in 2022, when compared to 2021: as of the end of September 2022 issuances were 8.5% below 2021 levels (it was 10.5% at the end of May). The months of February and March particularly contributed to this drop in 2022. Furthermore, the latest figures from the AIB show quite low issuances in May and June 2022 when compared to 2021 levels. Furthermore, September 2022 issuances were slightly below those from 2021. Hydro production in the Nordic region was below normal levels from Week 1 until Week 16 (included) of this year, which could explain these lower-than-usual issuances.

Second, we had more or less the same amount of Nordic Hydro GO canceled during these first nine months of 2022: approximately 75 TWh against 76 in 2021. This little gap can be explained by the fact that companies do not wait for March to cancel most of their GOs (because of the disclosure deadlines): they still do cancel a lot in March (23.7 TWh in 2022, 24.6 in 2021), but also in the two first months of the year. In 2022, 23.5 TWh were canceled in January and February (combined) versus 18.6 in 2021. The month of September was higher compared to last year in terms of cancelations: 9.6 TWh versus 8.7 in 2021. This figure might be slightly adjusted in the weeks/months to come.

Nordic Hydro Issuances and Cancellations

In November, the reservoir levels reached their highest, 80.4% over normal levels, due to a rainy fall. Further, the Nordic hydro prices went up to 908 Eurocents in week 47, which is also the highest of the year.


The reservoir levels (current and forecasted) send a good or bad signal to the market. In Week 12, amongst other news and variables potentially impacting the market, Nordic region precipitations and thus Hydro productions were forecasted to be below the 20% level in the weeks to come (which didn't happen, its lowest point being 22.2% in Week 17, still very low): that gave a very bad signal to the market, in addition to the geopolitical situation (we were at the end of March 2022, two weeks after the Russian invasion in Ukraine). During the weeks that came after, prices soared to breach the 200 Eurocents/MWh level, then decreased and stabilised around that support level: that support level didn't hold for long, as since Week 27 (the first full week of July) prices now breached the 300 Eurocents/MWh level, against a background of low precipitations, combined with few volumes on the market (mainly due to vacation time) and raising energy supplies concerns.

Nordic Hydro 2022 price developments  and reservoir levels

For all vintages, prices constantly raised during November, ending the month with trades around 979 and 893 Eurocents/MWh for 2022 and 2023, respectively. The prices have almost reached 10 euros and we expect them to continue to increase.


Should you have any questions or remarks, feel free to reach out to me at hedda@greenfact.com.

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